Leland, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

941
FXUS62 KILM 191300
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
900 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will bring southwesterly winds and hot
weather across the Carolinas through the weekend. A weak front
is expected to approach from the north early next week, bringing
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, along with
slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
A Heat Advisory remains in place today. Modified sounding data
indicates 2100 j/kg of MLCAPE, 700 j/kg of DCAPE, and LI to -7C
across the area. Combined with 2" PWAT, this airmass will once
again support afternoon showers and thunderstorms if they can
get going. Mid- level ridging should keep activity more isolated
across our southern zones, with a little better potential
coverage across the northern zones. This is reflected well in
going forecast and no updates are necessary this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Models continue to struggle with the current air mass, under-
performing each afternoon. While working on today`s forecast I`ve
resorted to a slightly simpler (and unfortunately less detailed)
approach of painting areas of theta-e convergence and elevated
instability with a 30%-40% PoP. This has seemed to have some
marginal success in capturing the large swath of air mass storms
over the last several days, even if it is a little on the high side
for most areas.

In the big picture, little change in the available moisture and
strength of the upper ridge should allow for the development of
isolated to scattered storms across portions of the area today.
Given the aforementioned parameters, the sea breeze and central NC
appear to have the best potential for convective initiation.
Outflows and mesoscale interactions will dictate things from there.

Heat continues to be the big story with heat indices above 105
likely for all areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory continues
through this evening and may need to be extended again through
Sunday. No relief overnight with lows in the mid and upper 70s
inland to near 80 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday, the ridge aloft sits firmly across the Deep South and into
the Gulf, while Bermuda high pressure at the surface continues,
bringing a constant supply of hot temperatures and elevated
dewpoints. Looking at another slam dunk for a Heat Advisory once
again. Only hope for relief include the seabreeze and the Piedmont
trough, which will act as the catalysts for isolated afternoon
convection. Some of the soundings want to increase the mid-level RH
just a bit, but it seems to be negligible in this case (i.e.,
shallow storms that aren`t very organized). Still have 2000-3000
J/kg of SBCAPE to work with, so any storm may produce frequent
lightning.

Still seeing signs of the ridge retrograding further down into the
Gulf coast Monday, potentially centering itself near the Texas-
Louisiana-Mississippi coast (might as well call that TexLaMiss).
Meanwhile, a trough is still progged to swing through New England,
where the southernmost part of it could dip into the Carolinas.
Interesting to note here that the trough doesn`t seem to dig as far
south this forecast cycle (not that it did before). This would
create a much slower progression of the cold frontal passage that
may delay itself more into a Monday night/Tuesday scenario than a
Monday/Monday night scenario. More uncertainty than usual for the
short term forecast, particularly with the timing. Despite all of
this, the front still looks rather weak.

Look for another hot day Monday, where yet another Heat Advisory is
almost certain. Despite whatever the delayed/weak frontal system
will be, it does look to bring increased rain chances and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Lows each night in the mid-to-upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still look to battle scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon, particularly since the old frontal boundary will likely
stall out over land or just offshore. The good news is that
clouds/rain + northeasterly flow allow temperatures decrease a bit,
with highs Tuesday in the upper 80s. No more Heat Advisories for
now, a welcomed sight for AC systems everywhere.

Biggest story of this upcoming week might be the mini "cooldown"
expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Low temperatures may
dip down into the upper 60s inland. Perhaps even more impressive
yet, current forecast now shows dewpoints mixing down into the upper
60s (!!!) inland Wednesday afternoon. However, I don`t want to get
too carried away here....guidance is still struggling with the
timing and intensity of this front, and the range of possibilities
within dewpoints goes from the mid 70s (what we`re sweating in right
now) down into the lower 60s (Friday night lights in late
September). Tried to lay the forecast down somewhere in the middle,
but I have my skepticism of this verifying. Check back later.
Elsewhere, rain chances come down and become much more isolated
Wednesday through Friday.

Tragically, temperatures in the 90s come back by Thursday, and
continue to turn up more by Friday. Next weekend may bring back more
Heat Advisories, but we`ll see how this shapes up.

44 days until meteorological fall.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another summer day on tap with afternoon showers and storms;
predominately VFR. Have highlighted the early sea breeze in NC
with a chance of showers and storms inland. Best lift will be
over NC today and a remnant mass of convection propagating with
a surface front could also reach the northern periphery of the
area late this afternoon and this evening. Confidence in exactly
where convection develops is low, but restrictions through
isolated storms should be brief. Gusty along the coast with
winds out of the south, synoptic winds remain SW elsewhere. Fog
and stratus chances appear low tonight, but the development of
showers and storms could dictate some localized chance of
restrictions.

Extended Outlook... Isolated/Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may bring brief MVFR ceiling and visibility
impacts this weekend, mainly the during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Coverage may increase Mon and Tue as a slow
moving front drops to the Carolinas from the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SW flow continues today ahead of an afternoon
sea breeze. Convergence along the sea breeze may be a focus for
afternoon showers and storms, increased chances over southeast
NC. Wind waves will generally dominate with seas of around 2-4
feet today. The sea breeze dissipates this evening and seas
should return to 2-3 feet, veering after sunset to SW.

Sunday through Wednesday...Southwesterly winds at 15 kts with
gusts up to 20 kts relax to below 10 kts by Monday. Seas at 2-4
ft slowly fall to 2-3 ft throughout this time. From there, a
cold front approaches the waters, and may stall out at some
point near or just east of the waters by Tuesday. Winds
gradually back to the northeast and increase to 10-15 kts
through Wednesday, a rather unusual feat for July. Seas increase
with the increasing gradient winds, initially going to 2-4 ft,
and then increasing to 3-4 ft, with a few 5 ft waves spotted 20
nm offshore.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...21
MARINE...IGB/21